My wife began life as a farm girl, which might explain her affinity for weather prognostication. Although her family’s welfare no longer depends on whether the soybeans will get enough rain, she rarely misses the weather segment of the evening news and has installed multiple weather apps on her smartphone.
My idea of checking the weather is looking outside the window. But I do suffer from a different type of forecast addiction. Early each year, I anxiously await the annual Kentucky Fishing Forecast, which is compiled by the fishery staff at the Department of Fish and Wildlife Resources.
The report anticipates which fish species—and how many, as populations are deemed excellent, good, fair or poor—will be cruising our lakes, ponds, rivers, streams and tailwaters, from 18-acre Washburn Lake in Ohio County to the Ohio, Kentucky and Green rivers.
Fishery officials say the report is popular, and I believe them. I read it and typically keep a copy on hand throughout the year. I used to keep a copy in the dry box and stuff a copy into a pocket of my fishing vest. It’s now a PDF file on my phone.
The annual report is crammed with information only a fishing geek could love. Lakes are listed in alphabetical order (A.J. Jolly to Yatesville) and include the county (or counties) in which they are located, the acreage and the species that are found in each watershed, with a forecast for the year for each, ranging from excellent to poor. A few comments are added to sweeten the deal.
Example: At Pennyrile Lake (Christian County, 47 acres), the 2019 forecast for bluegill is excellent. Here, according to the report compilers, is what you can expect: “Trophy sunfish is the primary management goal in this small but scenic lake. Some really nice bluegill are present as a result of the stunted bass population. Recent surveys found historically high numbers of bluegill less than 8 inches. Numerous fish less than 6 inches also present. Perfect for bank anglers and kayakers.”
It’s a similar story for nearby Beshear Lake (Christian and Caldwell counties, 760 acres), where the forecast is bright for channel catfish, which also garnered an excellent rating. Forecasters explain why: “High numbers of 10- to 20-inch channel catfish in the population. Channel catfish are stocked every other year at 10-12 inches. This is an underutilized fishery. Most anglers fishing for catfish use jug lines or noodles. Catfish are one of the reasons people go to Lake Beshear to fish.”
To cabin-feverish fishermen, this is mouthwatering information, and it goes on like that for about 40 pages. As something of a bonus, it ends with a two-page “cheat sheet,” which line-lists each waterbody and the species for each that are forecast as good or excellent.
The forecast has been issued for more than 20 years. There is no crystal ball or magic formula. Data is the result of the previous year’s grunt work, gathered from fish population and creel surveys, stockings and general knowledge of the fisheries.
I suspect one of the original purposes of the forecast was as a public relations tool. A statewide fishing forecast, with the promise of good fishing, handed out during the doldrums of a Kentucky winter whets the appetite of every license-buying fisherman. (The sport license year begins March 1.)
Fishery officials don’t deny the forecast’s public relations benefits but insist that arming fishermen with knowledge was and remains the main objective.
“The original intent for the fishing forecast was to make anglers aware of the findings of biologists out on the water collecting data through sampling, creel surveys, angler reports and reproductive success,” explained Jeff Ross, assistant director of fisheries for the state game agency and the guy who oversees the forecast. “The biologists have a good feel for the waters they manage and [are] trained to look for changes. The knowledge gleaned from their study and training provides a pretty good fishing forecast. For example, if biologists sampling a certain lake find two good reproductive years in a row, it will lead to good crappie fishing in the next few years.”
Regular readers will note that, for many waters, the yearly forecast is often similar to the previous year’s prognostication.
This isn’t bad news, Ross noted.
“Many of the lakes don’t make drastic changes from year to year,” he said. “Repetition is not necessarily a bad thing because it means stability in the fish populations. Some lakes are better for certain species, and sometimes the sameness is just the way the lake is.”
The fishing forecast, which usually is issued in January, is free and available online or in print. The 2019 issue can be found at fw.ky.gov/Fish/Documents/CurrentFishingForecast.pdf. If you need a printed copy, call the state game agency at 1-800-858-1549 and ask. They’ll send you one. I already have mine.
Readers may contact Gary Garth at editor@kentuckymonthly.com